IEEE Spectrum has a critical look at the past predictions of famed techno-optimist Ray Kurzweil:
Ray Kurzweil’s Slippery Futurism.
Therein lie the frustrations of Kurzweil’s brand of tech punditry. On close examination, his clearest and most successful predictions often lack originality or profundity. And most of his predictions come with so many loopholes that they border on the unfalsifiable. Yet he continues to be taken seriously enough as an oracle of technology to command very impressive speaker fees at pricey conferences, to author best-selling books, and to have cofounded Singularity University, where executives and others are paying quite handsomely to learn how to plan for the not-too-distant day when those disappearing computers will make humans both obsolete and immortal.
I have to agree with Mr. Rennie’s frustration. I’ve had discussions with a devotee of Mr. Kurzweil’s predictions (a supervisor at my previous job) concerning just this matter.